ArdShugart's Profile

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Self introduction - In addition to this, you must make sure that you are part of the society that your blog is developing. We are all in when it comes to writing and caring for our kids and teaching and keeping our house from falling apart around us but we are LOUSY at promotion. Both Rob and I write all the time when we are not juggling our kids and their special needs. If you believe that the current implied equity risk premium is too low, you are in effect also saying that stocks are overvalued, just as a judgment that the equity risk premium is too high is equivalent to arguing that stocks are undervalued. On this comparison, stocks dont look significantly over valued, since the current premium is higher than the long term average (4.21%), though if you compare it to the equity risk premium in the last decade (5.53%), it looks low, and that stocks are over valued by about 15%. There is a caveat, though, which is that this risk premium is being earned on a risk free rate that is historically low. Thus, my argument is a relative one: given how other financial assets are being priced and the level of interest rates right now, stocks look reasonably priced. This imagined motivation does not have to occur on a such low level though, and can include larger segments of the game. I share my story at...